The projections were updated on a weekly basis. [538 11] Obama won with 365 electoral college votes. One can argue this is more accurate and 538’s early track record proved it was. It's a data journalism site. [35], On June 16, 2010, Silver announced on his blog that he is willing to give all pollsters who he had included in his rating a list of their polls that he had in his archive, along with the key information that he used (poll marginals, sample size, dates of administration); and he encouraged the pollsters to examine the lists and the results to compare them with the pollster's own record and make corrections. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! [21], FiveThirtyEight launched its ESPN webpage on March 17, 2014. In Alaska, after a protracted counting of ballots, on November 19 Republican incumbent Ted Stevens conceded the seat to Democrat Mark Begich, an outcome that Silver had forecast on election day. Andrea Jones-Rooy, Dhrumil Mehta, Nathaniel Rakich, Derek Shan and Julia Wolfe contributed research. While under the ownership of ESPN in 2016, FiveThirtyEight won the Data Journalism Website of the Year award from the Global Editors Network. [3] Since then, the FiveThirtyEight blog has covered a broad spectrum of subjects including politics, sports, science, economics and popular culture. Later posts addressed methodological issues such as the "house effects" of different pollsters as well as the validity of telephone surveys that did not call cell phones. "[58] When Donald Trump became the presumptive Republican nominee in May 2016, New York Times media columnist Jim Rutenberg wrote that "predictions can have consequences" and criticized FiveThirtyEight for underestimating Trump's chances. Partisanship is determined by who sponsors the poll, rather than who conducts it. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. In 2013, ESPN became owner of FiveThirtyEight and in April 2018 the site was acquired by ABC News. In other words, we were basically acting like pundits, but attaching numbers to our estimates. Much like Grantland, which ESPN launched in 2011, the site will retain an independent brand sensibility and editorial point-of-view, while interfacing with other websites in the ESPN and Disney families. Cohen provided a periodic "Reads and Reactions" column in which he summarized Silver's articles for the previous couple of weeks, as well as reactions to them in the media and other blogs, and suggested some additional readings related to the subject of Silver's columns. Read more about the methodology. V = VOTERS. Silver wrote, "The big mistake is a curious one for a website that focuses on statistics. Show fewer polls. Trump's chances. [70] The main issues pointed out by the forecast model was the imbalance of Clinton's improvement in very populated states like Texas, Georgia (projected safe for Republican) and California (projected safe for Democrats);[70] mixed with her inability to attract white voters without a college degree, an increasing demographic in swing states, in addition to a potential decline in turnout from minorities. 's Claims of Financial Distress", "As Mets' Image Slumps, So Does Attendance", "September Collapse of Red Sox Could Be Worst Ever", "The Economics of Blogging and The Huffington Post", "Why S.&P. So in addition to written stories, we'll have interactive graphics and features". For his general election projections for each state, in addition to relying on the available polls in a given state and "similar states," Silver estimated a "538 regression" using historical voting information along with demographic characteristics of the states to create an estimate that he treated as a separate poll (equivalent to the actually available polls from that state). During the first two months after the election, no major innovations in content were introduced. How Trump compares with past presidents. The 538 model had forecast a net pickup of 8 seats by the Republicans in the Senate and 55 seats in the House, close to the actual outcome of a pickup of 6 seats in the Senate and 63 seats in the House. [41] However, of the seven listed writers, only three of them had published on 538/New York Times by late December 2010: Silver, Renard Sexton and Hale Stewart. Accordingly, he adapted an approach that he had previously used in his baseball forecasting: using nearest neighbor analysis he first identified "most similar states" and then factored into his electoral projections for a given state the polling information from "similar states". Send us an email. [538 18], Later, Silver adapted his methods to address a variety of issues of the day, including health care reform, climate change, unemployment, and popular support for same-sex marriage. When The Opposition Party Runs The House, The President Gets Investigated. [4][5] Silver weighted "each poll based on the pollster's historical track record, sample size, and recentness of the poll". [538 2] The mascot has been named Fivey Fox. Has this Media Source failed a fact check? We also rate them High for factual reporting due to proper sourcing of information, a solid record with poll analysis and a clean fact check record. This is what allowed him to beat all the pollsters in his forecasts in the Democratic primaries in North Carolina and Indiana, for example. Thus, his projections were not simply based on the polling trends in a given state. [49][50] Additional tests of the accuracy of the electoral vote predictions were published by other researchers.[51][52]. [46][d] Silver, along with at least two academic-based analysts who aggregated polls from multiple pollsters, thus got not only correctly predicted all 50 states, but also all nine "swing states". A substantial percentage of the articles focused on Senatorial races: the runoff in Georgia, won by Saxby Chambliss; recounts of votes in Alaska (won by Mark Begich), and Minnesota (Al Franken vs. News articles typically utilize moderate to minimal loaded language such as this: How Amy Klobuchar Could Win The 2020 Democratic Nomination. [538 4] After that date, he published just four more diaries on Daily Kos. [48], An independent analysis of Silver's state-by-state projections, assessing whether the percentages of votes that the candidates actually received fell within the "margin of error" of Silver's forecasts, found that "48 out of 50 states actually fell within his margin of error, giving him a success rate of 96%. But especially in the early months of the election season polling in many states is sparse and episodic. FiveThirtyEight, sometimes rendered as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. # It’s all about the 538 Electoral College votes. [6], Since the 2008 election, the site has published articles—typically creating or analyzing statistical information—on a wide variety of topics in current politics and political news. After President Obama's inauguration, Sean Quinn reported that he was moving to Washington, D.C., to continue political writing from that locale. [538 8], In July 2013, it was revealed that Silver and his FiveThirtyEight blog would depart The New York Times and join ESPN. [74], Controversy over transparency in pollster ratings. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college,[538 1] was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. However, while adopting such an approach in his own analysis, Silver reasoned that there was additional information available in polls from "similar" states that might help to fill the gaps in information about the trends in a given state. CS1 maint: BOT: original-url status unknown (. FiveThirtyEight projected a much higher probability of Donald Trump winning the presidency than other pollsters,[68] a projection which was criticized by Ryan Grim of the Huffington Post as "unskewing" too much in favor of Trump. [538 49] Cohen also contributed additional columns on occasion. [538 44]. The "538 model" once again aggregated the disparate polls to correctly predict that the Republican Scott Brown would win. In 2018, the operations were transferred from ESPN to sister property (under parent The Walt Disney Company) ABC News. [22] ABC News Live streaming channel was launched on Roku in May 2019. Averages will not be displayed unless a state has at least five total polls or polls from at least three pollsters. Senate 2020 Senate Interactive Map 2020 Senate Election Results Latest Senate Polls Pundit Forecasts What Happens: 50-50 Senate. [538 72], FiveThirtyEight sought to apply its mathematical models to the Oscars, and produced internal predictions regarding the subject, predicting four out of six categories correctly. [538 25], FiveThirtyEight covered the November 3, 2009, elections in the United States in detail. Silver's predictions matched the actual results everywhere except in Indiana and the 2nd congressional district of Nebraska, which awards an electoral vote separately from the rest of the state. Our model relies mainly on state polls, which it combines with demographic, economic and other data to forecast what will happen on Election Day.